Before the virus hit, people spoke enthusiastically at tech conferences about the idea of using drones to deliver meals to the elderly and parcels to the needy. The devices seemed to have unlimited potential to improve life for all of humanity, not just well-to-do Amazon customers.
But underneath all of the talk, there was a genuine sense that the concept was still some way off bearing fruit. While the technology already exists, businesses didn’t want to take the risk. The regulatory and legal environment was just too dangerous for mass-scale deployment.
What if there was an accident? What if somebody died? That would set the whole enterprise back a decade.
Now, though, we’re in a very different situation. The authorities across the western world have forbidden people from leaving their homes for all but the most essential of tasks. And so, there’s a desperate need for new distribution channels. In other words, we need robots to take over for a while so that we mere biological mortals can avoid untimely death.
Given the burgeoning demand for goods over the internet under lockdown, the sky should be black with swarms of delivery robots. The drones, however, are nowhere to be seen. What the heck is going on here?
More than a billion people are currently under lockdown across the planet. The scale of the response to the coronavirus is unprecedented. Only time will tell whether it is justified. Regardless of the wisdom of the public health measures, you would have thought that we’d be in the heyday of the delivery drone. But something has gone wrong with that project.
Amazon unveiled its Prime Air plan to the world back in 2013 – nearly seven years ago. The company promised that these drones would overcome the last-mile problem, and get parcels to customers faster. Then soon after that, one of the biggest parcel delivery companies in the US, UPS, applied for a license that would allow it to operate a robotic delivery service. Airbus even talked about building drones that could transport people from crowded airports to city centers and back again.
None of that, however, came to fruition. Despite all the talk and the promises, we haven’t seen much activity outside of a few trial projects.
So what’s going on here?
We’re On The Downward Phase Of The Hype Curve
The fact that drones can fly and carry onboard cameras led many to believe that they were ready for commercial deployment immediately. But, naturally, that’s now how things work. It takes time to integrate systems and flesh out protocols.
There’s also the economics of drones in the pre-crisis era. The devices were fast and could get parcels to customers in a matter of minutes, but vans are also cheap. The difference that the end-user would notice might be slight.
Companies are generally afraid of the risks of drones. It isn’t good for corporate branding to have drones falling out of the sky and damaging persons and property.
For that reason, we’re on the downwards phase of the hype curve. Drones are a very new technology, and convincing people of their merit will be difficult. The technology exists to deploy them at scale, but the will to do so was missing before the virus hit. It just seemed easier to carry out sending out products via regular courier.
The Coronavirus Changes The Game
The only way to defeat this awful virus, minus a vaccine or cure, is to maintain social distancing. When news of the disease first hit, scientists believed that we could get through it in a few months. Now, though, it looks like it will be with us for years.
For that reason, we need long-term delivery solutions that enhance safety. People don’t want to interact with delivery operatives who’ve been to dozens of other homes and potentially caught the infection. They want clean robots delivering their goods.
Delivery drivers themselves are rightly concerned too. Most have very little defense against the virus. It has now become a far more dangerous job.
Change usually only occurs when the imperative to do so becomes too high, it is irresistible. People didn’t want to move from the horse and cart to the motor vehicle. But as the costs of motoring went down, and the benefits went up, cities across the world made the switch – and often in just a few short years. Economic pressures built up in the system that made the technological transition inevitable.
Something similar might happen with drones. While they were more economical than conventional delivery methods before the crisis, few businesses wanted to take the risk. The payoff, as they saw it, wasn’t worth it.
The public health emergency, however, radically changes that dynamic. It now makes sense to take more risks because of the new concerns of customers. People are more likely to accept the risk that comes with drones if they know that it cuts the opportunity for transmission.
Where Will Drones Appear First?
Some uses of drone delivery services will likely arrive before others. Already, a group of companies is experimenting with the idea of drug delivery.
Drugs tend to be light, and so don’t exceed payload capacity.
As the efficiency of drones improves, they will likely be able to deliver bulkier parcels. Standard drones today can lift about three pounds – enough for most packages.
But if drones are to zip food to people’s homes, then they will need to go well beyond this. The payload will probably have to rise to about 20 pounds before we see people using them on a daily basis. With a 20 pound payload, a company like Amazon could deliver a week’s worth of food with just two or three drones.
The current thinking is that the widespread use of drones at the consumer end will start in the next ten years. But crises have a habit of sharpening the intellect and initiating action. It will not be a return to business as usual. Consumers will demand new solutions, and businesses will need to rethink their timetable to introduce the technology at scale. So too will regulators.
The delivery of medicines could arrive within five years, according to some experts. It could be ten years before we see drones dropping off grocery items.
Other Uses Besides Delivery
Drones, however, are continuing to weasel their way into other areas of the economy, despite the obvious applications. In fact, drones have made the news already in the coronavirus crisis, but not in the way that people would have thought.
It is not drone deliveries that are shooting up in popularity, but drone-based police surveillance.
The lockdown is a massive stretch on police resources. Making sure that everyone stays in their homes requires an enormous quantity of resources – and most police departments don’t have that kind of manpower. There’s a need, therefore, for systems that allow them to survey a greater area.
Drones are also keeping law enforcement officials safe. It is dangerous for them to have to go up to crowds and disperse them continuously. They run a very real risk of infection if they do so. Drones, therefore, can help them cut down on the number of in-person interactions that they need to make.
Conclusion
The bottom line is that the cavalry is coming. It seems that COVID-19 arrived just a handful of years too early. If it arrived in the middle of the 2020s, drones would likely have taken up the slack and made deliveries smoother. Some modern conveniences would have continued.
